Hard to believe it’s been nearly a year since my last open letter. A lot’s happened since then, including exactly what I said would happen to the Mets after I went to the DL. Just like in 2007, they got chumped by the Phillies. Again. Then they signed K-Rod and even traded for that J.J. Putz to try and replace what I bring to the table. And everyone knows what happened next. I guess it’s good that the Mets decided to just give up before the summer finished. Gives their fans something better to do with their time. I’m not saying that New York (and their paychecks) wasn’t good to me, but going to an actual contender with a legitimate shot at a World Series? The Shake Shack ain’t that great, know what I mean?
So let me set some things straight while I’m here. First of all, thanks to Jonathan Papelbon for getting his head on straight on what me coming to the Red Sox means. And "thanks" for being willing to help with my "transition" to the American League, but I’ve been pitching longer than you’ve been stupid, Paps. Only help I’ll need is in finding the clubhouse and the post-game spread. Unless something’s changed in the past 10 months, the mounds are the same, and the distance to the plate is the same. The strike zone might be changed, but that’s because umpires don’t know the black of the plate from my black ass. This AL / NL thing is just nonsense — ain’t no one that can hit a high 90s fastball if you know where to put it, I don’t care which league you’re in or what you got yourself pumped up on. If anyone’s gotta adjust, it’s the Junior Circuit to good old Billy Wags.
As for all you comedians trying to compare me to Eric Gagne, there’s ain’t nothing to compare. I am 100% pure red-blooded American through and through, like Johnny Cash or Lee Greenwood. And everyone knows that limey turd Gagne was 100% juiced-up overrated French Canadian candyass. Ain’t no surprise that his saves went down and his ERA went up as soon as MLB started to police that steroid nonsense. Knowing that slapshot-loving clown has a ring despite pitching like a fat Oliver Perez, while all sorts of players actually worth one goddamn (including myself) ain’t got a damn thing just … well, it just pisses me off, is what. If you so-called fans got out of your mom’s basement and knew anything about anything, you’d know that I’m gonna give all that I got and then some when Tito gives me the ball.
Some of you might be worried because of my rep as an outspoken clubhouse type, and how that’s gonna unsettle the Boston clubhouse. Well, excuse me for having a goddamn opinion. And correct me if I’m wrong, but I vaguely remember a similar sort of outspoke type coming to Boston about five years ago. And all he did while speaking his mind and calling a spade a spade was win you folks two world championships. Now tell me who in Red Sox Nation has a problem with Curt Schilling? Yeah, I might put my foot in my mouth once in a while, but that’s only because I like kicking ass! And this ain’t some namby-pamby game of Go Fish we’re talking about here — this is baseball, where you gotta kick some ass to get what you want.
Do I want to be the closer instead of a set-up guy? Hell yeah — that’s what I’ve done all my life, and getting demoted sucks. Lemme ask all you 40-hour work week folk the same question. Let’s say you’re forced to leave your current job, go somewhere else, and take a paycut. You wouldn’t be happy with that, right? Well, it’s like that with me. Except without the paycut. And my job’s about the same. But that ain’t the point! The point is that it’s hard to change, and you gotta want to do it. I’m willing to do what it takes to get Boston another World Series, and as long as no one screws it up for me, then everyone’s gonna get along just fine.
Boston Red Sox non-closer Billy Wagner hates the Facebook Farmville app. Hey, it’s on his Wiki page, so it has to be true, right?
Let me set the scene for you. You’re an up and coming sports franchise that’s coming off an awful, terrible year. Flop after flop after flop. Maybe not flops as bad as Popeye or Ishtar, but close enough to give you some palpitations and night sweats — something like Jade or Silver, let’s say. Real stinkeroos.
My dad is a world famous Super Bowl Quarterback. His name is Brett Favre. A lot of people like to make fun of my dad for all sorts of reasons. They like to make fun of the way he spells his name because it doesn’t look like it sounds. They also like to make fun of him for being a good football player. But my dad is more than a good football player with a funny spelled name. He is a Super Bowl Quarterback and he is the best that has ever played the game of football. According to the Internet he has a lot of records including consecutive starts by a quaterback, career touchdowns, career interceptions, career playoff interceptions, and career playoff losses. Those are a lot of records that might never be broken. And this is one of the reason my dad Brett Favre is my hero.
The Kid Gloves Are On (Underneath The Kid Gloves)
Joba Rules Joba Rules Joba Rules. I imagine even diehard denizens of the Yankee Universe are sick of the continuing refinement and rejiggering of the Joba Rules. They were initially put in place to keep notorious bullpen bully Joe Torre from shredding Joba’s golden arm in the pursuit of World Series glory. They’ve since been amended and/or rewritten in the service of making the transition from hard-throwing closer-in-training to well-rounded starter as painless as possible.
What this meant going into 2009 was limiting Joba’s usage to around 150 innings pitched. Entering yesterday’s start agains the Chicago White Sox, he was at 130.2 IP. With over a month, and approximately six starts for Joba, left in the regular season, that would mean he’d reach his cap if he simply pitched into the 6th inning every start. Faced with this dilemma, the Yankees’ initial plan was to start Joba less frequently going into October. After deliberating for a day or so (give or take a handful of hours), they’ve instead chosen to start Joba regularly and limit his innings on a start-by-start basis so that he’ll be able to ease into a bug-free post-season.
Hence, yesterday’s White Sox start, wherein young Joba allows two runs in three innings and finds himself riding the pine after a mere 35 pitches. If anything, it was by far his most efficient short start of 2009 — before Sunday, Joba started six games where he’s thrown over 80 pitches and left before the game’s been deemed official. It goes without saying that being young, injury-prone, and averaging 20 pitches per inning is no way to go through life as a major league starting pitcher. Ironically (and I think, for once, I’m using the damn word properly), it’s that maddening ineffciency that, in addition to giving the “Joba no start; Joba setup Mariano” crowd plenty of axes to grind, it has allowed Joba to avoid hitting his inning cap.
Now, whenever the topic of young starters and inning caps is broached, it doesn’t take long for the Verducci Effect to get mentioned. As he explains in this 2008 article from Sports Illustrated:
The list of exceptions, they are a-growin’, and it’ll take one hell of an out clause to explain them away. A list of potential at-risk pitchers, compiled by Beyond The Box Score’s Peter Bendix and RotoAuthority’s Tim Dierkes, whose workloads in 2007 and 2008 fell within the Verducci Effect parameters for the 2009 season, includes John Lester, Chad Billingsley, Tim Lincecum, Jair Jurrjens, John Danks, Clayton Kershaw, and, um, Zach Grienke. Of course, the list does include ‘09 lost causes like Ervin Santana and Manny Parra, but the efficacy of this theoretical spitballing is spotty at best. Not that I’m the first one to figure that out — back in 2006, when Verducci first went public with his findings, The Hardball Times’ Dave Gassko debunked them using a more thorough statistical approach than yours truly, and came to the following conclusion:
Now while the Yankees are presumably not just taking last year’s numbers and adding thirty, the emphasis on innings pitched rather than pitch count (or even the types of pitches thrown) puts the Joba Rules in a less than favorable light. It’s the same sort of approach that made the 100-pitch plateau some sort of starters’ Rubicon that only a select few could cross unscathed. These sorts of restrictions are good as back-of-the-napkin guidelines, but going from that to simply applying them in any and all cases is just as bad as ignoring any safety precautions and letting 20-year-olds throw 200-pitch complete games every third day. (And, yes, I’ve been a Baseball Prospectus subscriber for over five years now, thanks for asking. If you’re looking for the Cliff Notes’ version of their well-worn mantra, you can read this discussion between Bill James and SI’s Joe Posnanski about Nolan Ryan and the Rangers’ newly-instituted organizational philosophy regarding starting pitchers, as well as the 100-pitch threshhold.)
At any rate, all this hand-wringing, in Joba’s case, won’t matter in a couple of weeks — the Yankee brass is on record stating that they want to make sure that Joba’s ready to go deep into games when the post-season rolls around (and “the training wheels are off,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch puts it in the Joba article linked to in the 1st paragraph). Come next year, Joba will be treated like any other starter. Unless he continues to throw upwards of 100 pitches in five frames or less, a la inefficiency expert Scott Kazmir. Then it’ll be time to handle with care and take heed of these wise words from Baseball Prospectus contributor Rany Jayazerli: